Queensland smokers more restricted from July 1

The third-stage smoking ban will roll out in the state absent hard evidence that legislation reduces tobacco consumption. The Queensland government announced last week a ban on smoking wherever food or drink is served with compliance to be enforced by fines on both erring establishments and customers who light up. The "total smoking ban" is the latest broadening of laws, dating from Cabinet approval in October 2000, that targeted restaurants and bars, but only when and where meals were served.

Beginning July 1, the smoking ban will expand to include pubs, clubs, restaurants, kiosks and takeaway bars. Still exempted are establishments with a general, club or casino license; these can allocate half their outdoor area and even then, for drinking and smoking only.

There will be a three-month grace period. Only on September 1 will Queensland Health's 80 environmental health officers check compliance and levy fines of A$150 and $10,500 on erring smokers and venues, respectively.

Consistent with the experience in other cities around the world where governments have clamped down on smoking in restaurants and drinking venues, restaurant and drinking venue owners in Queensland fear the worst for their turnover.

While hastening to emphasize that the hospitality industry would of course comply and police recalcitrant customers, Queensland Hotels Association (QHA) chief executive Justin O'Connor predicted a further slump. This is inevitable, he said, going by the revenue losses association members have already endured over two stages of partial bans Queensland imposed over the last 18 months. The QHA also points to equally negative consequences of the smoking ban in Tasmania.

In other cities around the world, the feedback from the trade is mixed. Merchants report little harm to their cash flow. But the evidence can be hard to take at face value, especially when health authorities get involved in trotting out data that bolsters their prediction a smoking ban would no unduly harm business. The Irish government reported, for example, that pub revenues fell just 3% in 2004 while ignoring the obviously related fact that pub prices rose around 9%.

In the two years since New York City went smoke-free, on the other hand, a Zagat study pointed out that tax revenues from alcohol sales remained steady and 23 percent of patrons actually ate out more often as a result of that state's ban. Other impact studies around the country have shown no decline in business.

There is no ambivalence, however, where restaurant and bar patrons are concerned. They know what the precise effects of smoking bans have been, which is not so much to discourage smoking per se but to move the behavior elsewhere. When asked their opinion about the effectiveness of smoking bans, customer after customer reported that they had to endure "extremely crowded" decks or sidewalk table areas because too many drinkers want to light up while enjoying their draughts and cocktails.

In a more rigorous examination of Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data, the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research of the University of Melbourne tracked smoking behavior over the period 2001 to 2003, when smoking ban initiatives in Queensland, Victoria and the Northern Territory came into effect. While they found that "pregnancy was the biggest single predictor" for quitting the habit, the Institute also had to conclude that "The effect of the introduction of smoking ban regulations on individuals' smoking behaviour is generally in the expected direction, albeit not statistically significant for most types of individual." In plain language, there is no evidence that smoking bans reduce tobacco consumption.

In the end, smoking bans are obviously public policy instruments for protecting the majority of adults who have quit or never took up smoking at all. After all, the incidence of smoking has trended down over three decades to levels approximating the present-day 20% in the United States. And without mainstream media advertising to sustain user imagery, smoking is no longer seen as the chic, sophisticated, swinging, cool thing to do.